Like everything since this... fun... adventure started the consequences probably wouldn't arrive all at once.
When the Strait of Hormuz closed the immediate worry was that 20% of world crude oil supply would be cut-off.
Due to various factors the knock-on impact wasn't as large as that loss would imply:
- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline transported some across to the Red Sea (this might be blown up by now, I haven't been following it closely enough to say for sure)
- The closure wasn't complete, ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman side of the strait provided some flow
- China had large (no one really knows how big) strategic reserves so cut their imports considerably. The US also had a large strategic reserve, reducing/offsetting demand for the new stuff
This cushioned the price shock of the closure, which was felt more by Asia anyway, since that's where much of Hormuz's flows went, due to proximity.
The system is huge and has many complicating factors (refineries, whatever is currently happening with the Houthis as of Saudi's counterattack, China getting back into the global market). But once the stockpiles run out you'd expect to see the price of crude increase. Which, along with the current refinery issues, could make the current discontent about the price of diesel in the US look positively quaint. Probably after the midterms though. But like with the catastrophic predictions around the initial closure of Hormuz, the picture will emerge more gradually, with more confounding factors.
If you think prices have been bad since the US attacked Iran, then you don't know the half of it.
Apparently, we are experiencing the "lite, cushioned" version of how bad prices can actually get. (And the cushion we had that was easing things along is almost gone).
The best time for US energy independence was 50 years ago. The second best time is now (without our choice). Energy, transportation, and food costs will rise. Historically, rising food prices spark regime change. Be on the lookout for new governments.
I don't know how to interpret this. My initial impression is that this has potentially imminent serious implications.
Will someone illuminate?
Like everything since this... fun... adventure started the consequences probably wouldn't arrive all at once.
When the Strait of Hormuz closed the immediate worry was that 20% of world crude oil supply would be cut-off.
Due to various factors the knock-on impact wasn't as large as that loss would imply:
- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline transported some across to the Red Sea (this might be blown up by now, I haven't been following it closely enough to say for sure)
- The closure wasn't complete, ship-to-ship transfers via the Oman side of the strait provided some flow
- China had large (no one really knows how big) strategic reserves so cut their imports considerably. The US also had a large strategic reserve, reducing/offsetting demand for the new stuff
This cushioned the price shock of the closure, which was felt more by Asia anyway, since that's where much of Hormuz's flows went, due to proximity.
The system is huge and has many complicating factors (refineries, whatever is currently happening with the Houthis as of Saudi's counterattack, China getting back into the global market). But once the stockpiles run out you'd expect to see the price of crude increase. Which, along with the current refinery issues, could make the current discontent about the price of diesel in the US look positively quaint. Probably after the midterms though. But like with the catastrophic predictions around the initial closure of Hormuz, the picture will emerge more gradually, with more confounding factors.
IIUC:
If you think prices have been bad since the US attacked Iran, then you don't know the half of it.
Apparently, we are experiencing the "lite, cushioned" version of how bad prices can actually get. (And the cushion we had that was easing things along is almost gone).
The best time for US energy independence was 50 years ago. The second best time is now (without our choice). Energy, transportation, and food costs will rise. Historically, rising food prices spark regime change. Be on the lookout for new governments.
I miss Jimmy Carter.